A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
