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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the current race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still